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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-2008
Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest

Web Log - June, 2008

Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest

Pakistan army abandons negotiations for war to prevent imminent takeover of Peshawar

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Pakistan has become increasingly paralyzed in the months since Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf was forced to give up much of his power last fall, leading to elections in January that ended his monolithic leadership. In its place is a fragmented government with multiple power centers. Leadership has been replaced by incessant bickering, just as it has in the United States Congress and in many countries around the world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is precisely what was to be expected. In America, the post-WW II Baby Boomer generation never learned any leadership or governing skills, having spent the 60s and 70s protesting and rioting against their parents. Today they're the senior management in political, business and educational institutions across the country, and are unable now to develop the new skills necessary to lead. The middle managers in Generation-X, frustrated by the lack of Boomer leadership, are taking matters into their own hands. But they lack the experience and wisdom of the Boomers, and are much more likely to handle complex situations with simple solutions that backfire, sometimes leading to disaster.

In Pakistan, since Musharaff was forced to resign his role as commander in chief of Pakistan's armed forces, the military and the intelligence services (ISI) have become essentially independent units within Pakistan, pursuing their own policies, often maintaining secrecy from civilian government officials.


Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pakistan.gov.pk)</font>
Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

This became apparent last week when it was revealed that in February the military and the ISI had negotiated a secret peace agreement with Sunni militants in Pakistan's tribal regions that border Afghanistan.

This foolish policy has backfired. A terrorist group, Tehrik-e-Taliban (Taliban in Pakistan), led by Baitullah Mehsud, has used the time to gain strength in the region surrounding Peshawar, threatening complete takeover of the city.

This could lead to complete control of the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), and to an ethnic civil war between the Pashtuns, centered in NWFP, and the Punjabis, centered in Punjab province.

(For further information on the history of the 1947 Partition and the relationships between Pakistan's ethnic groups, see "Tense Pakistani president Musharaff calls for elections" from last year.)

For the United States and NATO forces fighting in Afghanistan, the increasing strength of the Taliban poses significant problems. The resurgence of Taliban strength in Afghanistan means that much of the country is no longer under control of the government, headed by President Hamid Karzai.

Furthermore, since Afghanistan is land-locked, the assault on Peshawar threatens the major route for resupplying the NATO forces. This supply route runs from the port of Karachi to the outskirts of Peshawar and through the Khyber Pass to the battlefields of Afghanistan.

The strategy pursued by the military and ISI has now changed. The peace agreement with the Taliban has ended, and on Saturday Pakistan's army began attacking the militants around Peshawar. That battle is ongoing.

In a separate but possibly related story, thousands of Muslim separatists in Indian Kashmir have been protesting since Monday against India's plan to transfer some land to a Hindu shrine. These protests have led to violence and clashes with police.

Kashmir is an predominantly Muslim area, but has been disputed by both Pakistan and India since the UN partitioned it in 1947 into Pakistani and Indian regions. Pakistan claims the entire region, and points out the partition was supposed to be temporary, and that the UN Security Council mandated an election in 1951 to permit Kashmiri self-determination. That election has never been held, and there have been constant clashes between Indian forces and Kashmiri separatists who want the entire province to be part of Pakistan.

So Pakistan is in a continually deteriorating situation. The government is split into factions and paralyzed, while significant external problems with militants are growing. Pakistan may be close to civil war, and that would inevitably lead to war (and then nuclear war) with India.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a re-fighting of the massive, bloody genocidal war that followed Partition in 1947 is coming with absolute certainty. Exactly what will trigger this war cannot be predicted, but the increasingly militancy that's facing a paralyzed Pakistani government illuminates a number of different scenarios. (29-Jun-2008) Permanent Link
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