	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Sep-07
Review of recent international stories

Web Log - September, 2007

Review of recent international stories

France, Pakistan and Israel in the news

I've been focusing on the global economic situation, and have been neglecting a number of important international stories. For the record, here's a summary of some of these stories:

France and Iran

Ever since Nicolas Sarkozy became President, he's become increasingly vocal about Iran's nuclear program, and has indicated (through his foreign minister) that the world should begin to prepare for war with Iran.

Europe as a whole is very schizophrenic about Iran. On the one hand, they don't want to do anything that might be interpreted as supporting United States policy. On the other hand, nuclear missiles launched from Iran won't reach the U.S., but they will reach Europe.

As I wrote in a lengthy analysis of Iran, this kind of bellicose reaction is welcomed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and by the hardline mullahs. Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and the Iranian people identify with western values, even American values, much to the horror of the hardliners. They see a military conflict, or the threat of one, as the way to unify the nation against the West, as happened during their last generational Crisis era, leading to the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

This is a highly volatile situation, and it's impossible to predict whether, in fact, any military action will take place.

Pakistan and Pervez Musharraf

I've always expressed admiration for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and his Indian counterpart, India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers, but these two leaders have engineered a remarkable détente that has prevented a conflict.

Musharraf, born 1943, and Singh, born 1932, are both survivors of World War II and the subsequent genocidal war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and Jammu, a dispute that still seethes today, even though the United Nations partitioned the region into Indian and Pakistani regions in 1947.

The disappearance of either Musharraf or Singh would change the situation dramatically, as either one would likely be replaced by someone much younger, and much more confrontational. This is the kind of generational change that leads to new crisis wars.

Musharraf is viewed by many Pakistanis as an American puppet, and now Osama bin Laden has issued a new video declaring war on Musharraf, and calling for his overthrow.

The Pakistanis will have have an election on October 6, and Musharraf's destiny is in doubt at this time.

Sarkozy vs the French Unions

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is in the news for another reason: he's headed for a major confrontation with the labor unions.

President Sarkozy went on television to announce his plan to end the Napoleonic era civil service laws. Infuriated union leaders are threatening crippling strikes.

When Sarkozy won the election in May, he said that he was "going to restore the status of work, authority, standards, respect, merit. I am going to give the place of honour back to the nation and national identity. I am going to give back to the French people pride in France."

He promised to end the 35-hour work week, solve the problem of illegal immigration, and make France a leader in the European Union.

He's been proceeding cautiously, but now he's ready for full-scale political warfare.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, he has little chance of succeeding. Think of what's happening in Washington, where the city is practically paralyzed by politicians who are incapable of doing accomplishing anything except arguing. This is because the survivors of the World War II are all gone, and the leaders in Washington are from the Boomer generation born after the war.

The same is happening in France, and in fact in every country that fought World War II as a crisis war. The postwar generation is in charge, and the country is paralyzed, with the leaders unable to do anything but argue.

So it's unlikely that Sarkozy will accomplish anything with his aggressive new initiative although, of course, it will generate a great deal of political furor.

Israel and Gaza

Israel's cabinet has just voted to declare the Gaza strip a "hostile territory," because of the steady stream of Qassam rockets fired into Israel from Gaza.

This means that Israel will impose further restrictions on living conditions in Gaza, including limiting the supply of fuel and electricity, and the transfer of people and goods.

The intent is to make it harder for militants to smuggle weapons into Gaza, but the result will be a further degradation in the standard of living, in a place where the standard of living is already almost the worst in the world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Gaza and Israel are headed for a new genocidal crisis war, refighting the genocidal war between Palestinians and Israelis that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. However, in recent months it's become increasingly likely that a component of this war will be a civil war between Gaza and West Bank Palestinians, with the West Bank allied with Israel, at least for a while. (21-Sep-07) Permanent Link
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