Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe steps down amid decreasing popularity - 12-Sep-07 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe steps down amid decreasing popularity

Scandals, incompetence, and Japan's schizophrenic attitudes toward fighting terrorism are blamed for the downfall of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who took office only a year ago.

Top: Shinzo Abe gives resignation speech. Bottom: Opposition politicians applaud. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Top: Shinzo Abe gives resignation speech. Bottom: Opposition politicians applaud. (Source: BBC)

When Abe took office, he had ambitious plans to increase Japan's role in worldwide diplomatic and military affairs. He began with widely applauded trips to China and South Korea, to reduce tensions with those countries over World War II atrocities, and his approval rating went to 80%.

Abe's most important initiatives were in the military arena, with plans to beef up Japan's military defense, and to amend the post-war pacifist constitution that forbids declarations of war.

When Abe took took office as a young, hawkish Prime Minister, born in the generation following World War II, I expected Japanese-Chinese relations to get worse.

That doesn't appear to have happened -- or maybe it might have happened if Abe's administration hadn't been struck by one scandal after another:

December 2006: Head of government tax panel resigned because taxpayers were subsidizing his love nest with his mistress.

December: Administrative minister resigned over accusations of corruption.

January 2007: Health minister called women "breeding machines." You know that can't be politically popular.

March: Abe said that the Japanese would no longer apologize for the use of "comfort women" during WW II, and that there was "no evidence" that the women were forced into prostitution.

May: Agriculture minister commits suicide over a political funding scandal.

July: Defense minister resigns after saying that America's atomic bombings of Japan "couldn't be helped."

Aug: New agriculture minister resigns after corruption charges.

Sept: Another new agriculture minister resigns over accusations of illegal dealings. What is it about Japanese agriculture ministers?

These scandals might well be enough to cause any political leader in any country to resign. In fact, Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major election defeat on July 29, and his personal approval rating is now close to 20%.

But Abe gave an entirely different reason for his resignation:

"[Despite the negative results of the legislative elections,] I had determined that the reforms should not be stopped and that the direction of breaking away from the post-war regime should not be changed. I decided to continue in office. Since then, I have worked as hard as possible, until now. ...

Recently [I said that] the war against terrorism should not be discontinued and that it should be continued by all means. ...

I had the responsibility to persist in this policy with everything in my power. With that thought, I said that I would make every effort and risk my job in order not to discontinue this mission.

I also said I would absolutely not cling to power. Toward this end, I had to make every effort possible.

I also felt that I had to work hard to create the environment, and that I had to give everything I have, and to do everything possible.

[I met with opposition leaders and,] unfortunately, my proposal for the meeting was, in effect, rejected, [and I was criticized] for not following the people's mandate. It is truly regrettable.

I thought about what I should do in order to continue the war against terrorism and concluded that I needed to turn the tide.

Under a new prime minister, the government should aim to continue the fight against terrorism, and to provide a breakthrough in this situation."

The specific issue at hand was a proposal to extend Japan's support for the US-led war in Afghanistan. Under this program, Japan's navy refuels US aircraft in the Indian Ocean.

Some news reports indicate that a deal may have been made, where Abe's opposition will permit this program to continue as long as Abe resigns.

This schizophrenia is strikingly similar to the situation in the United States, where the Congress spends day after day after day investigating real or imagined scandals and makes fatuous demands to end the Iraq war without actually accomplishing anything at all.

In fact, this is the kind of paralysis that's been happening around the world in countries that fought in World War II, including Israel, Korea and Britain.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this kind of paralysis is typical of governments just preceding the start of a new crisis war. The reason is that the survivors of the last crisis war have all retired or died, and the new post-war generation (the Boomers in the United States) have no idea how to govern or how to avoid war. At some point they panic, and a new crisis war begins.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new Clash of Civilizations world war. It may begin next month, next year or thereafter, but it will occur with 100% certainty. In that war, Japan will be our ally, and China will be our enemy, reversing their World War II roles. (12-Sep-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07 Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe steps down amid decreasing popularity

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe steps down amid decreasing popularity