Level of conflict growing between Americans and Pakistanis - 23-Jul-07 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jul-07

Level of conflict growing between Americans and Pakistanis

Foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri says that Pakistanis are getting "angry" and "upset," following the criticisms and implied threats about terrorism that they've been hearing from Americans.

Frances Townsend, homeland security adviser. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: iht.com)</font>

Frances Townsend, homeland security adviser. (Source: iht.com)

Remarks of that kind came Sunday from Frances Townsend, President Bush's homeland security adviser.

"Job No. 1 is to protect the American people. There are no options off the table," Townsend said on Sunday. "No question that we will use any instrument at our disposal" to deal with al-Qaeda. She said that if the United States had "actionable targets, anywhere in the world," including Pakistan, then "we would pursue those targets."

Townsend's remarks cap a week of criticisms of increasing stridency coming from Washington and directed at Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf.

The criticism follows a new intelligence narrative, put forth by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, and other recent critics. Although the narrative has been put forth by analysts in the past, it's gained prominence recently because of Administration statements.

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According to McConnell,

President Musharraf's government is to blame for allowing al-Qaeda to regroup within the tribal regions of North Waziristan, on the Afghan border.
Musharraf particularly signed a disastrous peace agreement with tribal chiefs in March, 2006. This gave al-Qaeda a free hand to set up new training camps and rearm on the Pakistani side of the border.

That peace deal only ended last week with the substantial increase in al-Qaeda violence throughout Pakistan, including several suicide bombers, killing hundreds of people,

Osama bin Laden is still alive, and is hiding out in Pakistan.

The remarks by Townsend that American armed forces might pursue targets in Pakistan, following on the heels of this narrative by McConnell, is infuriating the Pakistanis.

Pakistan Foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Pakistan Foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri (Source: CNN)

Here's what Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said on Sunday on CNN:

"The Pakistani military is already there in the tribal area. ...

Pakistan's commitment cannot be doubted by anybody, and that is why some of our people do not like what we read in some of your newspapers, which are more like leaks and calculated leaks. And we hear of safe havens in Pakistan.

It really makes us very angry when we are suffering so many casualties, when our troops are suffering so many casualties. You know, I know you're a friend, but the way you frame your question is something that people in Pakistan don't like. ...

All I'm saying is this: I am not trying to underestimate the situation. I know it's a difficult situation. We've suffered casualties in the last three days. What we need is actionable intelligence. We do not want, you know, something said just for the purpose of having an effect on American public opinion.

Now, I want to say one thing very clearly. The whole purpose of this exercise: to win hearts and minds of the people. Now, we are aware of that, and we have to carry our public opinion with us. And here is a figure which I would like you and the American audience to ponder over. Look at the ratio of casualties between your troops and Iraqi civilians.

And do you know what our casualties have been? When 500 or 600 of our soldiers died -- and I'm talking the past year and not the recent ones -- we were able to get hold of about 800 or 900 fatalities by the militants. Which means the ratio is 1:1.2, whereas the ratio in Iraq, I do not even wish to mention.

The difference is that we cannot afford what is conveniently called collateral damage. We have committed to controlling terrorism. We have demonstrated that at the time of Lal Masjid, recently, the Red Mosque, and it lasted over six months. We've tried our best to save human lives. It was only as a last resort that force was used.

And people in Pakistan get very upset when, despite all the sacrifices that Pakistan has been making, you know, you have the sort of questions that are sometimes asked by the American media.

And as far as the media is concerned, I don't wish to be more frank that I'm going to be in this interview. We heard a lot of what was said before the Iraq war. A lot of newspapers now have been gracious enough to admit that they made certain mistakes. Maybe they are making bigger mistakes at this moment."

These remarks are exceptionally strong in the world of international diplomacy, and the represent a significant heightening of tension between America and Pakistan.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there's no doubt in my mind that President Musharraf is underappreciated in America. I've expressed my admiration many times for both him and India's prime minister.

India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers, and they almost went to war in 2002, but they drew back, thanks to a remarkable détente that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered over the last few years.

Musharraf, born 1943, and Singh, born 1932, are both survivors of World War II and the subsequent genocidal war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and Jammu, a dispute that still seethes today, even though the United Nations partitioned the region into Indian and Pakistani regions in 1947.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

As survivors of the last crisis war, both men have spent their lives doing everything possible to guarantee that their children and grandchildren will never have to go through any similar experience. This explains why Singh and Musharraf pushed so hard, and succeeded in forging the détente between the two countries, and have maintained peace, so far, over Kashmir and Jammu.

But as is always the case with Generational Dynamics, it's not politicians that matter, but changes in the attitudes and behaviors of masses of people are very important.

This startling statement by Pakistan's foreign minister indicates that some things are changes. This could be a blip that will disappear, or it could be the beginning of a major new series of confrontations between America and Pakistan.

As I've said in the past, we can be certain that a Clash of Civilizations world war is coming, but we don't know the road that we'll travel to get there. In particular, we can't be entirely certain who'll be allies of whom. Nonetheless, my expectation is that America will be aligned with Japan, India, Russia and the UK, and that the new axis will begin with China and Pakistan. What we're seeing now might be the first step in that direction, or things may take a different turn. Only the Clash of Civilizations world war is absolutely certain. (23-Jul-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jul-07 Level of conflict growing between Americans and Pakistanis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jul-07
Level of conflict growing between Americans and Pakistanis