Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

 |  HOME  |  WEB LOG  |  COUNTRY WIKI  |  COMMENT  |  FORUM  |  DOWNLOADS  |  ABOUT  | 

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Apr-07
As population increases in India, agriculture becomes a crisis.

Web Log - April, 2007

As population increases in India, agriculture becomes a crisis.

Deaths on mobbed railway trains become a daily occurrence, according to a story in Thursday's Wall Street Journal:


About 13 people are accidentally killed every day Mumbai (Bombay), thanks to overcrowding on the railways. <font size=-2>(Source: WSJ)</font>
About 13 people are accidentally killed every day Mumbai (Bombay), thanks to overcrowding on the railways. (Source: WSJ)

"About 13 people per weekday were killed in 2006 scrambling across the tracks, tumbling off packed trains, or, occasionally, jumping onto an oncoming train. Last year, a total of 3,404 people were killed on Mumbai's railways. By comparison, 127 people were killed on New York State's railways in the last five years."

Although India is not the most densely populated country in the world, it's still ten times as densely populated as the United States, as shown by this table that I originally derived from the CIA Fact Book (2005):

   Country         Pop/sq km
   -------------   ----------
   Russia             8.46
   World             12.36
   United States     30.15
   Mexico            53.18
   China            134.10
   Haiti            271.27
   Israel           294.49
   India            319.29
   Japan            336.69
   West Bank        381.77
   Bangladesh       961.45
   Gaza Strip      3541.30
   Singapore       6653.09
   Hong Kong       6771.22

The population of India increases about 1.6% each year (compared to 0.9% for the United States). The Indian government claims that food production has been increasing at the rate of 2.3%, which should be enough, since it means that food production is growing faster than the population.

But this government claim hardly seems credible, since India's food prices have been rising dramatically in recent years, as I wrote about recently. Prices of food are increasing around the world, but India's double-digit price increases make it almost a world leader. Furthermore, India used to be a grain exporter, but has been a net grain importer for the last two years.

In fact, agriculture in India seems to be increasingly in a crisis, especially since the early 1990s when the results of the "Green Revolution" began to peter out. This crisis takes many forms, the saddest of which is the dramatic increase in farmer suicides.

Agriculture is crucial to India for the obvious reason -- that it produces the food that people eat. But, there's another reason: Farming is the the source of livelihood for 115 million families in India, and 70 percent of the country’s population.

At the end of World War II, world leaders were extremely morose and pessimistic about the possibilities for peace. The world had just fought two extremely bloody world wars, and it appeared that a third world war, to be fought by the West against Communism, was on the horizon. Leaders were frenzied and desperate, as they looked for ways to solve the problems that had given rise to the two world wars.

Worldwide hunger was identified as a major problem, and it was felt that if a way could be found to guarantee that every family in the world had sufficient food, then a world war could be avoided. So countries of the world, led by the Rockefeller Foundation, launched a "green revolution" which brought modern agricultural techniques and technology to countries around the world. These technologies included new hybrid and genetically modified seed varieties and the use of pesticides.

In India, the results were dramatic. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, food production increased greatly. For the first time, India was able to feed itself and was actually exporting food to other countries.

On this web site, I often focus on certain theme: Following a crisis war (like WW II), the survivors of the war set up austere rules and procedures in order to guarantee that their children and grandchildren will never have to go through anything so horrible. But as the decades go by, and the generations of war survivors are replaced by young generations of kids with no patience for austerity, the rules begin to unravel and procedures become abused. This is certainly true of investors' use of credit today, as I've written many times.

Well, it's also true of the Green Revolution and farmers in India. Here are some of the things that have happened:

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's significant is how similar India's unraveling is to America's unraveling. The details are different, of course, but the desperate use of credit in the hope of enough money to get out of debt is the common factor in all of these unraveling situations, including India today, America today, the 1929 crash, the Tulipomania bubble in the 1630s, the South Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French monarchy in the 1780s, and the the Panic of 1857.

When a worldwide financial crisis occurs, everyone becomes extremely risk-averse, and turns against credit. As younger generations replace the risk-averse generations that lived through the last crisis, the population as a whole becomes more risk-seeking and more abusive of credit and more willing to engage in desperate and often criminal schemes to make money.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're now overdue for the next major worldwide financial crisis. It might be triggered next week, next month, or next year, but it's coming with 100% certainty, and probably sooner rather than later. (22-Apr-07) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004

Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.