Senator Ted Kennedy compares Iraq war to Vietnam War. - 9-Jan-07 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-07

Senator Ted Kennedy compares Iraq war to Vietnam War.

In a speech demanding total withdrawal from Iraq, Kennedy said that the American people demanded withdrawal in the recent election. The Massachusetts Democrat gave his speech on Tuesday afternoon to the National Press Club.

Senator Ted Kennedy at National Press Club <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Senator Ted Kennedy at National Press Club (Source: CNN)

He said the following:

"Some will disagree. Listen to this comment from a high-ranking American official.

'It became clear that if we were prepared to stay the course, we could help lay the cornerstone for a diverse and independent region.

If we faltered, the forces of chaos would smell victory, and decades of strife and aggression would stretch endlessly before us. The choice was clear. We would stay the course, and we shall stay the course.'

That's not President Bush speaking; it's Lyndon Johnson speaking, 40 years ago, ordering 100,000 more American soldiers to Vietnam."

This is an interesting comparison. What Kennedy fails to mention is that Lyndon Johnson was absolutely right about what would happen if we faltered. After America withdrew, there was a huge genocidal war engulfing the entire region, with millions of people killed in Vietnam, and then in the "killing fields" of Cambodia.

So if I could ask Senator Kennedy a question, I would ask him this question: "Are you prepared to allow what happened in Vietnam to happen in the Mideast -- a huge war, engulfing the entire region, with millions of people killed?"

Unfortunately, none of the hotshot journalists at the National Press Club will think to ask that question.

However, none of this matters, because Senator Kennedy is partially correct as well.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the genocidal war in Vietnam and Cambodia would have occurred no matter what the U.S. did; their previous crisis war was the French conquest of Indochina (1865-1885), and so a new crisis war in the region was overdue.

In the Mideast today, there's going to be a huge genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, with the survival of Israel not guaranteed (and perhaps not even likely, at least in its current form), and this will happen no matter what the U.S. does.

So what should we do about this? How do you make policy when you know that a cataclysm can't be prevented? Suppose that President Bush understood and accepted the conclusions of Generational Dynamics. What would then be the correct policy decision?

Should we withdraw from Iraq and Mideast and let the war occur -- just get it over with, like a dentist appointment? There's a big historical downside to that policy: History would blame the U.S. for anything that happened. Or should we continue our current policy, so that at least we won't be blamed?

Of course there's no rationality to any of this. Kennedy believes that the "American people" want withdrawal from Iraq, but he's talking only for Boomers. Younger generations want the Iraq problem solved, but will not tolerate a major American defeat, such as happened in Vietnam.

Boomers are on the decline today. More and more, the leaders are Generation X, as well as the new college-age generation (the "Millennial generation" or "Generation Y"). In the end, it's not Kennedy's Boomers who will make the decision, and it's not even President Bush. It's the younger generations who will decide, through polls, letters to Congress, and elections. And chances are that it will be like Israel's summer war with Hizbollah: a decision made in total panic, with little or no advance planning. (9-Jan-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-07 Senator Ted Kennedy compares Iraq war to Vietnam War.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-07
Senator Ted Kennedy compares Iraq war to Vietnam War.