Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Oct-06
Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory

Web Log - October, 2006

Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory

It now appears likely that Democrats will control the House and may control the Senate, after the November 7, 2006, elections.


Expected election results as of Sunday, Oct 15, 2006
Expected election results as of Sunday, Oct 15, 2006

It won't much difference in terms of policy, since America has almost no policy alternatives today. And it won't make much difference in terms of rhetoric, since both Democrats and Republicans are saying any stupid thing that comes into their minds.

What is of interest in extreme bitterness and acrimony accompanying the campaign. As I've said several times before on this web site, when a country enters a "generational crisis" period, the great mass of people become increasingly confrontational and less willing to compromise. During America's last generational crisis period, in the 1930s, the acrimony directed against President Franklin Roosevelt was enormous. He was accused of one thing after another, including treason. Just google the phrase "fdr scandal" to see what happened. Republicans were extremely critical of Roosevelt's handling of WW II. In America's previous generational crisis period, Democrats were very acrimonious about President Lincoln's pursuit of the war, and as late as 1864, the Democratic platform called for peace negotiations with the South, to end the war as quickly as possible.

So what's happening today is nothing new. William Strauss and Neil Howe, the founders of generational theory, found that the same kind of acrimony in all the Anglo-American crisis periods they analyzed, as described in their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning.

Let's briefly address some of the political arguments we're hearing today:

This is an extremely dangerous time for our country, and we need to be preparing for what's coming, instead of bickering over nonsense.

From a policy point of view, it really doesn't make much difference which party is in control of Congress, but in one sense I'm relieved that the Democrats will be taking over. At that point they may have to take some responsibility for getting things done, rather than just acrimonious criticisms of people who are trying to get things done. Perhaps I'm just fooling myself in the hope that the level of acrimony will come down, but for the time being I'd prefer to hold onto that hope, even though it may mean that I too am in a "state of denial." (15-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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