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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-May-06

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Stock markets continue to fall worldwide

Stock markets continue to fall worldwide

Wall Street fell 1.5-2% on Tuesday, Europe fell 2-3%, and Asia is currently falling 1.5-2%, as of this writing (around midday Wednesday, Tokyo time).

We're still on the path for an early stock market crash, as I described in my May 30 essay, "Speculations about a stock market panic and crash."

What would it take to get off that path? There are three major possibilities:

• A sustained rally -- very unlikely right now.
• A sharp reduction in volatility -- a steady market for a couple of weeks. This is a possibility.
• A "de-synchronization" of the world's markets -- e.g., Asia goes up when Wall Street goes down. This would indicate that money is flowing from market to market, rather than being pulled out of all markets.

Any of these three things would "break the spell," at least for now, and make a stock market panic and crash less likely for now.

A brief rally alone would not be enough to "break the spell"; indeed, it would actually be directly on the path that we described in the May 30 article, since it would be a "second peak."

A stock market panic is a chaotic event, so it's impossible to predict the exact date of a stock market panic. But as long as things continue the way they are now -- with all markets synchronized and high volatility continuing -- then a stock market panic could occur at any time. (31-May-06) Permanent Link
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