President Bush's speech lays out plan for disengagement from Iraq war - 1-Dec-05 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-05

President Bush's speech lays out plan for disengagement from Iraq war

Both sides showed little understanding of what's going on in Iraq yesterday, as President Bush gave gave a major speech outlining his Iraq war strategy.

President Bush made it clear that he would not approve of withdrawing from Iraq until the insurgency was defeated:

"Some are calling for a deadline for withdrawal. Many advocating an artificial timetable for withdrawing our troops are sincere -- but I believe they're sincerely wrong. ... Pulling our troops out before they've achieved their purpose is not a plan for victory. ... Setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would send a message across the world that America is a weak and an unreliable ally. Setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would send a signal to our enemies -- that if they wait long enough, America will cut and run and abandon its friends. And setting an artificial deadline to withdraw would vindicate the terrorists' tactics of beheadings and suicide bombings and mass murder -- and invite new attacks on America. To all who wear the uniform, I make you this pledge: America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your Commander-in-Chief."

Senator Joe Biden (Democrat, Delaware), interviewed on CNN, said that we "stirred up a hornet's nest," since it was the war that created the insurgency, and that the insurgency would start to disappear as the American troops withdrew.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both views are flawed for the same reason.

Generational Dynamics predicts a major regional war between Jews and Arabs in Israel/Palestine, and another major regional war over the Kashmir region.

It's the long-standing conflicts over the Palestine and Kashmir regions that are driving the insurgency, not just in Iraq but also in countries throughout the region.

American interests have been targeted by an ever-increasing level of Islamist terrorism since the 1980s, with 9/11 being the peak attack so far. In fact, Islamist terrorist insurgency groups are active in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Kashmir, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, West Bank, Gaza, Egypt, Morocco, and other countries. Almost none of these have anything to do with Iraq, and they wouldn't go away if we pulled out of Iraq tomorrow.

Was the 2003 invasion of Iraq a mistake? I've said before that I don't believe we'll know for ten years or so. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're heading for a "clash of civilizations" world war, it will be years before we know whether the invasion of Iraq helps us or hurts us in that war.

(Incidentally, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, one of the world's most anti-American political leaders, told CNN yesterday that a badly planned withdrawal could cause chaos in Iraq, "which of course would be disastrous for the whole region." He wants America to coordinate the withdrawal wth France and the international community.)

At any rate, it seems clear that American forces will remain in Iraq until the larger war begins. Like everything else these days in American policies, the Iraq war will be running on "cruise control," and will serve useful purpose for political game-playing for both political parties, until some major terrorist attack or other shock forces us off cruise control into war. (1-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-05 President Bush's speech lays out plan for disengagement from Iraq war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-05
President Bush's speech lays out plan for disengagement from Iraq war