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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Sep-05
Bird flu situation in Indonesia remains clouded, as virus spreads

Web Log - September, 2005

Bird flu situation in Indonesia remains clouded, as virus spreads

Meanwhile, the Dutch breathe sigh of relief as spread towards Europe appears to stall.

As many as 48 people may be infected with bird flu in Jakarta and nearby municipalities, raising the possibility of rapid spread to other regions.

The U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) says that these fears are exaggerated, that only four cases have been confirmed so far, and that the others "might be just old-fashioned flu."

The Recombinomics web site, on the other hand, says that it's "obvious to the most casual observer" that WHO is not treating the situation seriously enough, and that the rapid spread of bird flu clusters throughout the region means that the "resulting major pandemic appears to be accelerating in Indonesia at this time."

Certainly WHO wants to be as conservative as possible, for fear of prematurely causing a panic and then not be believed when a real pandemic finally occurs. However, even WHO's latest press release says that "the world is fast recognizing the risk of an imminent human influenza pandemic."

So the situation is confused, but the potential for an imminent human bird flu pandemic is certainly present.

Separately, the Netherlands has eased an order which had required that all commercial poultry be confined indoors. The order was causing a row because the products were labeled as "free range," and some people say that an indoor chicken just can't be called a "free range" chicken.

The revised order, which permits "low risk" birds to be allowed outside as long as they're protected by netting, was motivated by the fact that the spread of bird flu in western Asia seems to have slowed. It was moving quite rapidly through central Asia and Russia towards Europe last month, but there have been fewer cases this month. The spread could begin again any day as the winter bird migration continues.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Once again, I must recommend to my readers that if you've been planning to take reasonable precautions before any crisis occurs, then now is the time to do take them. A worldwide bird flu pandemic could well occur this fall, but that's not all. Economic news this week indicates that credit card and public debt continues to increase exponentially, to the point where a number of analysts, including many who are habitually much less gloomy than I am, are starting to talk about a serious recession this fall. With public debt and credit card debt continuing to increases exponentially, the country may be at an economic tipping point, just as Jakarta may be near a health tipping point. (30-Sep-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Sep-05 Bird flu situation in Indonesia remains clouded, as virus spreads

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Sep-05
Bird flu situation in Indonesia remains clouded, as virus spreads