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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-05
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is very dangerous, but he's looking increasingly pathetic

Web Log - September, 2005

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is very dangerous, but he's looking increasingly pathetic

It was just two weeks ago when he claimed credit for the weather, when he took credit for Hurricane Katrina, by saying, “If Muslims are powerless to defend their religion, God is on the lookout (to punish) the oppressors.”

That statement appeared rather desperate, because he had to admit that his attempts to trigger a civil war in Iraq, and al-Qaeda's failure to perpetrate another terrorist act on American soil, had all been failures.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the well-funded leader of the group "al-Qaeda in Iraq," has been very successful in using suicide bombers to blow up some Americans and a huge number of Iraqis.

And it's the fact that he's blowing up devout Muslims that's causing enormous anger within the Muslim community itself.

This has led al-Zarqawi to issue a series of increasingly pathetic statements, starting last Wednesday, when he issued this statement:

"Al Qaeda Organisation in Iraq ... has declared war against Shi'ites in all of Iraq. As for the government, servants of the crusaders headed by (Iraqi Prime Minister) Ibrahim Jaafari, they have declared a war on Sunnis in Tal Afar. You have begun and started the attacks and you won't see mercy from us."

Now, al-Zarqawi is Sunni Muslim, and his declaration of war against the Shi'ites was not welcomed by the Shi'ites. Apparently the pressure has gotten to al-Zarqawi, because he issued this statement earlier this week:

"The al-Qaeda organisation in the country of the two rivers makes an exception for some Shiites. Not all Shiites are our target.

In a previous audio message issued by Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, he declared total war on Shiites for the massacre perpetrated by the Shiite government of Ibraham al-Jafaari against the Sunnis of Tel Afar. Despite this, it should be stressed that in that speech, al-Zarqawi specified that 'all Shiites who condemn the crimes committed against the Sunnis at Tel Afar and who don't support the occupation will be excluded from attacks by the mujahadeen'. Those groups therefore include three Shiite movements: those of al-Sadr, al-Khalisi and al-Hussani. The following groups remain targets for al-Qaeda: Al-Jaafari's Dawa Party, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution (SCIRI), Ahmad Chalabi's National Congress Party and Iyad Allawi's National Accord Party."

Well, that should make the Shi'ites happy, shouldn't it?

Well, one of the best known Shi'ite clerics in Iraq is imam Moqtada al-Sadr. You may recall that one year ago, he was trying foment an Iraqi uprising against the Americans. He failed utterly, as I had predicted he would, because Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period, just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Since then, al-Sadr has given up fomenting violence against Americans, and he's taken to denouncing al-Zarqawi.

In a statement issued on Wednesday by al-Sadr, he said,

"In Abu Musab al-Zarqawi making an exception in our case, the Jordanian terrorist is trying to force a split within the Shiite world. With yesterday's statement, in which our movement was excluded from al-Qaeda's total war on the Shiites, he is trying to divide the Shiite school, insinuating that there is a internal conflict between the groups."

The statement went on to call on Zarqawi and his followers to immediately leave Iraq and stressed that "for our movement, al-Zarqawi is nothing but an enemy, and if he falls into the hands of our militia he will be torn apart."

There's good news and there's bad news here.

The good news is that al-Zarqawi is embarassing and harming the cause of Islamic Jihadists and terrorists. It's possible that al-Zarqawi will be forced to end the Iraqi insurgency, simply because it's accomplishing little more than killing innocent Iraqis, without doing too much damage to the Americans.

The bad news is that al-Qaeda's worldwide war against Western civilization is going to continue, and gather momentum.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war. However, it's worth pointing out that this doesn't mean that all Muslim countries will be on one side, and all Western countries will be on the other side; there will undoubtedly be splits on both sides. But my expectation is that this world war will begin in earnest within the next 1-3 years, and that the American troops will still be stationed in Iraq when it begins. (22-Sep-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-05 Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is very dangerous, but he's looking increasingly pathetic

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Sep-05
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is very dangerous, but he's looking increasingly pathetic