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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-May-05
"Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world

Web Log - May, 2005

"Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world

From Gaza to Indonesia, Muslims are shouting "Death to America."

Muslim protestors are calling on America to apologize for desecrating the Koran. Muslim leaders are demanding that the Guantanamo perpetrators be found and punished for tearing up a Koran and stuffing it down a toilet.

The problem is that the incident apparently never happened.

The rumors began with a story in last week's Newsweek magazine, which began, "Investigators probing interrogation abuses at the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay have confirmed some infractions alleged in internal FBI e-mails that surfaced late last year. Among the previously unreported cases, sources tell NEWSWEEK: interrogators, in an attempt to rattle suspects, flushed a Qur'an down a toilet and led a detainee around with a collar and dog leash."

No one's getting upset about the dog leash part, but the unconfirmed toilet story is roiling the Muslim world, according to news stories:

Pakistanis hold an anti-U.S. protest Friday in Karachi.

KABUL, Afghanistan (May 13) - Angry protests raged across the Muslim world from Indonesia to Gaza on Friday over a report that U.S. interrogators at Guantanamo Bay had desecrated the Koran, with calls for retaliation and a rising death toll.

In Afghanistan, at least nine people were killed on Friday, in protests over the report bringing the country's death toll to 16 this week in its worst anti-American demonstrations since the fall of the Taliban.

Washington sought to stem Muslim anger as allies demanded investigations and thousands took to the streets in outrage over the Newsweek magazine report that interrogators at the U.S. military prison in Cuba had put the Muslim holy book on a toilet and at least once flushed it down.

The unrest spread to Pakistan, which called for a U.S. probe. Hundreds of people held a peaceful protest in Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation.

In Gaza, several thousand Palestinians marched through a refugee camp in a protest organized by the Islamic militant group Hamas. Several hundred Palestinians also marched in the West Bank city of Hebron.

"The Holy Koran was defiled by the dirtiest of hands, by American hands," a protester shouted at the Jabalya refugee camp in Gaza, where U.S. and Israeli flags were also burned.

The escalating violence prompted the Bush administration to express sympathy with the demonstrators and urge calm.

"We want Muslims around the world to know that we share and understand the concerns that they have. We are also saddened about the loss of life because of these demonstrations turning violent," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

There are several interesting and important things to be said about all this.

Though this is no major revolution, this shows how major popular revolutions can start. All it takes is an unsubstantiated rumor at a time when people are in the right mood to ignite the fury of a lot of people.

It's not surprising that this kind of thing is happening. Last year, we described a survey of Arabs in six countries that showed that Arab attitudes towards America, which were 80% unfavorable two years early, were now 90% unfavorable. That was last July. Today, they're probably even more unfavorable, and so these kinds of expressions of anti-American fury are not surprising.

To emphasize this point: Palestinians today are marking Al Naqba - Catastrophe Day - commemorating the 67th anniversary of the creation of the state of Israel on May 15, 1948. The desecration rumor is perfect symbol for anti-American and anti-Israeli demonstrations on Catastrophe Day.

(11-May-05) Afghan university students march in the steets in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, carrying copies of the Quran and sticks and tree branches <font size=-2>(Source: AP)</font>

(11-May-05) Afghan university students march in the steets in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, carrying copies of the Quran and sticks and tree branches (Source: AP)

(11-May-05) A car burns in the street as university students protest in the steets in Jalalabad, Afghanistan <font size=-2>(Source: AP)</font>

(11-May-05) A car burns in the street as university students protest in the steets in Jalalabad, Afghanistan (Source: AP)

Car burning in Fallujah riot in Iraq in April, 2004

Car burning in Fallujah riot in Iraq in April, 2004

In fact, we've seen these kinds of demonstrations before. The top two adjacent photos are from last week's demonstrations in Afghanistan, the bottom photo is from last year's demonstrations in Fallujah in Iraq. These demonstrations are similar to those that occurred in the political turmoil of the 1960s and 1970s in America's "generational awakening" period. Iran and Iraq are going through a generational awakening period, a generation after the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and Afghanistan is going through a generational awakening period, following its war with Russia in the 1980s. (That war was not a crisis war for Russia.)

Contrast those demonstrations to what happened in Uzbekistan on Friday and Saturday, which as I wrote about yesterday, has the potential of spreading and destabilizing Asia. According to more recent news stories, government forces that fired into the crowd killed 500 people, and thousands of refugees have fled Andizhan and poured across the Kyrgyzstan border. It's this involvement of huge masses of people that signals a crisis-era war, as opposed to a non-crisis or awakening type demonstration. Screaming "Death to America" and burning a car for a TV camera is great political theatre, since the demonstrators just return home each evening to their homes and families. But when thousands of people flee their homes in terror, you have something quite different, the first signs of a major genocidal crisis war. Perhaps things will settle down right now (or perhaps they won't), but sooner or later one of these conflicts will "spiral out of control" into full-scale revolution.

Returning now to Iraq, we see that nothing of this sort has happened in Iraq. Well-funded terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been trying for two years to ignite a civil war in Iraq, and has been very successful in using his money to convince disaffected youngsters to become suicide bombers to kill Iraqi civilians. But we don't see thousands of Iraqi citizens fleeing their homes to avoid the bombings, we don't see sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shi'ites, and we don't see a rebel army threatening to overthrow the new government. All we see are war-weary Iraqis struggling to get their lives back together, even in the face of the violence. For the last two years on this web site I've been mocking journalists, analysts and politicians who wishfully predicted a civil war in Iraq. I've always said that such a civil war is impossible, because only one generation has passed since the 1980s Iran/Iraq crisis war. Time has proven that I was repeatedly correct, and the journalists and high-priced analysts were wrong.

On the other hand, Gaza, Pakistan and Indonesia are all in or near "generational crisis" periods, and this kind of demonstration could eventually lead to crisis wars in those countries.

In a final ironic twist, the lead story in the new issue of Newsweek admits that the story was wrong, and explains what happened.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war that will pit Western nations and allies against Muslim nations and allies. Last year, when I wrote about the six most dangerous regions of the world, to identify the regions that might trigger such a war. But the massive demonstrations over over a descration incident that isn't even true shows that Muslims around the world war identifying and uniting with one another, building up to that war. (15-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-May-05 "Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-May-05
"Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world