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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Apr-05
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5

Web Log - April, 2005

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5

But pundits are saying that Iraq is not an issue. Could that be true?

Tony Blair could have selected any date before June 12, 2006 - five years after the last election, but he selected May 5. On Tuesday, he made a visit on Tuesday to Westminister Palace, to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament, and the Queen graciously agreed. Next month's election will select all 646 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons. The majority party (or coalition) will form a new government and select the Prime Minister, either Tony Blair or his replacement.

What's interesting is that the pundits do not expect the Iraq war to be the major issue. The major issues are expected to be related to the National Health Service, immigration, crime, taxes, and whether to adopt the proposed European Union constitution and the euro currency.

According to the BBC's election issues guide, here are the top priorities of each of the three major parties:

Here are the three parties' positions on the Iraq war:

According to early polls, Labor and the Conservatives are tied at about 35%, and the Liberal Democrats are a distant third at 21%.

Thus, if Labor or Conservatives win, as is overwhelmingly expected, the UK will continue to support the war in Iraq.

In this sense, the UK election parallels our own November Presidential election. The John Kerry and George Bush had almost completely identical platform positions on Iraq, but Iraq was a major election issue nonetheless.

Australia, America, UK

President George Bush, Prime Minister Tony Blair and Australian Prime Minister John Howard were the three major leaders in launching the Iraq war in 2003. John Howard was decisively reelected last year, This victory was a surprise because opposition leader Mark Latham has been highly critical of Australia's participation in the Iraq war, and indicated that if he won he would pull Australian troops out of Iraq.

Thus, Blair's is the third reelection bid of the three leaders. If we can predict anything based on these last elections, it's probably this: That Iraq is going to be in important issue, and will have an important effect on the election, though we don't yet know what it will be. (05-Apr-05) Permanent Link
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