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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-04
U.S. and Japanese economies show unexpected warning signs

Web Log - December, 2004

U.S. and Japanese economies show unexpected warning signs

With the jobs report due out on Friday, America's consumer confidence index fell for the fourth month in a row, according to a report from The Conference Board.


Consumer Confidence Index, March-November, 2004.  <font size=-2>(Source: Conference Board)</font>
Consumer Confidence Index, March-November, 2004. (Source: Conference Board)

The Consumer Confidence index is computed from several different components that measure the economy in several different ways. For November, the most ominous components were expectations of future job growth, which were the lowest in more than a year, and measures of future buying plans, which also fell dramatically. These measures indicate that employment and retail sales are likely to be weak in coming months.

The fall was unexpected, as analysts had expected it to increase

Analysts had also been forecasting improvements in Japan's economy, but Japan's industrial production, employment and household spending all fell in October, an unexpected result.

As usual, you can't determine long term trends from one month's figures, but analysts have been predicting for over two years that both the Japanese and US economies would be growing robustly by now, since the recession ended in 2001. At least, that's what's happened "historically," with recessions in the 1960s through 1990s.

And Japan's econony has been in the doldrums since Nikkei (Tokyo Stock Exchange) index fell 80% in 1990.

No analyst has provided any explanation for why three major world economies -- America, Japan and Europe -- are all foundering, and can't seem to break out as they always have "historically."


<b>S&P 500 Index, 1950-present, with long-term trend line</b>
S&P 500 Index, 1950-present, with long-term trend line

This is the only web site that gives the complete reason. As we've said before,

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're in a new 1930s style depression. My expectation is that stock prices will fall by more than 50% in the next 3-4 years. To people who disagree with the analysis that I've been giving on this web site since 2002, my question is this: What's your explanation for why the economy has been doing so poorly?

The November jobs report is due out on Friday. It will be closely watched. (1-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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