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	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Nov-04
How France screwed Secretary of State Colin Powell

Web Log - November, 2004

How France screwed Secretary of State Colin Powell

Powell's worst day as Secretary of State was undoubtedly January 20, 2003, at a joint press conference with French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin.

Powell and de Villepin had had a close working relationship at the UN, developing a final resolution to use force in Iraq. They spoke a a minute or two before the press conference, and agreed on what they would say.

At the press conference, Powell was shocked to hear de Villepin announce that France would veto any any resolution that explicitly authorized the use of force against Saddam Hussein.

After that, the whole effort with the United Nations fell apart, and the UN itself was almost torn apart. It later turned out that the whole thing had been planned for weeks by French President Jacques Chirac and de Villepin. They purposely led Powell on, strung him along, with the intention of ambushing him and humiliating both him and America.

We now know the reason as well -- that France was making billions of dollars in kickbacks from Saddam's oil-for-food fraud, which was enriching France, Russia and Saddam, but leaving millions of Iraqi citizens to starve.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics the importance of this episode is with regard to France itself. By planning in secret to humliate Powell and America, France is establishing a pattern typical of pre-war activities throughout history.

Another pattern that France is establishing is a closer and closer relationship with the Muslim "side" in conflicts between the West and Muslim nations. These include

Evidently taking the Muslim side in war between the Catholic government and Muslim rebels in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)

Supporting the Palestinian side in political disagreements with Israel, and providing a haven for Yasser Arafat prior to his death.

Receiving positive support from Muslims worldwide when two French journalists were kidnapped in Iraq.

Continued open hostility to England and America.

No one of these items is determinative by itself, but the group taken together indicates an increasing trend.

There have been crisis wars in Western Europe for centuries, the last one being World War II, and Generational Dynamics tells us that there'll be another one in the next few years with near 100% certainty. However, Generational Dynamics doesn't tell us which countries will be on each side. Indeed, France was allied with England in World War II, but was defeated by England in the Napoleonic Wars. In fact, England is considered to have been founded when the French conquered the native Saxons in London in 1066.

The growing entente between France and the Muslim world, combined with the growing hostility between France and England indicates that there will be a major new war between France and England, and that France will be on the side of the Muslim civilization in the "clash of civilizations" world War.

When I tell people that there's going to be a new war between England and France they often express emotions varying from simple disbelief to total contempt, but it's appearing more and more certain. Here's a scenario that shows how it can occur:

As unrest increases in the Mideast, international forces, including French and English forces, are called in to keep the peace. As the war escalates, both the French and England are forced to choose sides. When Jordan and Egypt declare war against Israel, France sides with Jordan and Egypt, and England sides with Israel. England bombs French facilities in France, leading to a new West European war.

This is speculation of course, but one way or another, expect a new war between England and France in the next few years.

Colin Powell himself may understand some of this, and it might even be one of the reasons why he felt it necessary to resign yesterday as Secretary of State. (16-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Nov-04 How France screwed Secretary of State Colin Powell

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Nov-04
How France screwed Secretary of State Colin Powell