Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Nov-04
European and Japanese economy show sharp, unexpected slowdowns, as do American factory orders

Web Log - November, 2004

European and Japanese economy show sharp, unexpected slowdowns, as do American factory orders

High oil prices, weakness of the dollar, and slowdown in exports are blamed for third quarter slowdowns in both the European and Japanese economies.

Growth in euroland was only 0.3% in the third quarter, below economists' expectations of 0.4%, and well below second quarter growth of 0.5%. Growth was likewise only 0.3% in Japan's third quarter.

In America, the economy has had mixed results recently. Retail sales have risen slightly, but in September factory orders fell unexpectedly. Orders fell 0.4%, which was the biggest decline since April, while analysts had been expected a 0.3% rise.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, America is entering a 1930s style depression. I've written this many times before on this web site, but one thing I haven't emphasized too much in the past is that Europe is on the same generational timeline. The huge 1990s stock market bubble occurred at exactly the time that the senior financial advisors from the generation of people who grew up during the Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died), all at the same time, in the early 1990s, and the same is true of Europe.


Japan's Nikkei Stock Market Index, 1973 to 2003
Japan's Nikkei Stock Market Index, 1973 to 2003

Japan is on an earlier timeline, having had its major bubble in the 1980s. As you can see from the adjoining graph, the Nikkei stock market index was at around 40,000 in 1989, following a large bubble that began in 1985. Recently, the Nikkei has recovered to the 11,000 range. But even so, the economy is still slowing, and inflation has actually been negative (deflation) now for six years.

As had been the case repeatedly for 2-3 years, economists have no plausible explanation for any of these unexpected results. (15-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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