Mixed emotions in Europe as Kerry may be victorious. - 2-Nov-04 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-04

Mixed emotions in Europe as Kerry may be victorious.

Most Europeans favor Kerry, but a Kerry victory will cause new strains with America, according to pundits and journalists discussing the American election on the BBC World Service today.

With exit polls this evening showing that John Kerry will be the next President, Europeans are saying that a John Kerry presidency would have a better relationship with Europe than with a second term George Bush presidency. [Late evening update: The vote count and exit polls now appear to show that Bush is leading.]

But they also warn that a Kerry presidency would raise issues that would cause new frictions between America and Europe:

As a candidate, Kerry promised support from other countries in Iraq. President Kerry would be expected to pressure France and Germany to provide troops to "share the load" in Iraq, but any such requests would be flatly rejected.

As a candidate, Kerry promised to promote measures to keep American jobs in America, which translates into higher tariffs and tax penalties for outsourcing jobs. Europeans prefer free trade, and would be hurt by restrictive trade policies.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, in the long run it will make no difference whether Bush or Kerry is elected, since we're headed for conflicts that have been in the cards for decades. Indeed, Kerry's policies on Iraq, Israel and other foreign policy areas are identical to Bush's, and there really isn't any opportunity for flexibility anyway.

As we've previously written, much of the non-American world favors Kerry, but many of these opinions are based on unrealistic expectations of a Kerry presidency. This view is supported by an article in today's New York Times which describes how the residents of Falluja view a possible Kerry presidency:

Sheik Khalid al-Jumaili, the chief negotiator representing the people of Falluja in talks aimed at averting an imminent American-led invasion, at first said the elections would change nothing for the town either way. But then he warmed to the topic.

"If there is the slightest possibility of a change in the policy in Iraq," he said, "then we pray to God that Kerry wins. We have suffered enough and we need a change in policies."

He is far from the only resident of Falluja to feel that way. Of eight men at a recent gathering of former soldiers, tribal leaders and intellectuals at a home in Falluja, six said they hoped Mr. Kerry would win.

"The policy of Bush was one of violence and war, and we don't think Bush will change that," said a former officer in the Iraqi Army. "Maybe Kerry will be wiser. Even if he doesn't withdraw the American forces, maybe he'll reduce the violence. Even people in America now think that because of Bush's policy, others in the world have taken an aggressive view against America."

Now, there is absolutely no difference in policy on Falluja between Bush and Kerry. Bush has received moderate criticism from conservatives because last spring's offensive against Falluja was postponed for peace talks.

Kerry cannot be less aggressive in Iraq, or in Falluja in particular, or the moderate criticism will become a roar.

Whether Kerry wins or Bush wins, lots of people are going to be furious, and that's going to have an important effect on the world next year. (2-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-04 Mixed emotions in Europe as Kerry may be victorious.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-04
Mixed emotions in Europe as Kerry may be victorious.