	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Oct-04
An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel

Web Log - October, 2004

An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has proposed a Kashmir peace plan which, like the Mideast "Roadmap to Peace," has no chance of succeeding.

Musharraf's plan offered to negotiate over three possible options:

The whole area could be demilitarised and made autonomous

It could be put under the joint control of the two countries

Some parts could be divided between the two countries and the Kashmir Valley would either become autonomous or be put under UN supervision.

However, leaders in both Pakistan and India are rejecting Musharraf's plan.

India, Pakistan and Kashmir. <font size=-2>(Source: Peter N. Stearns)</font>

India, Pakistan and Kashmir. (Source: Peter N. Stearns)

Both Palestine and Kashmir were partitioned by UN fiat following the end of World War II. The partitioning of Palestine resulted in the creation of the state of Israel. The partitioning of Kashmir was part of an overall UN solution which created the state of Pakistan, separate from India, and provided for referendums within the disputed Kashmir and Jammu regions to decide whether the would be part of either Pakistan or India.

Both Palestine and Kashmir have been the sites of non-crisis wars - Kashmir in 1965, and Palestine in 1967 and 1972. Both have experienced low-level violence for several years now. Both have been the subject of major international attempts at peace plans -- the "roadmap to peace" for Palestine and the new Musharraf plan for Kashmir.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both regions are in generational crisis periods, with a new regional war coming with near 100% certainty in the next few years. Thus, there is no possibility that either peace plan will work.

The new "Mideast Peace Roadmap" was announced in May, 2003, and called for a Palestinian state side by side with Israel by 2005. There are few people in the world who believe that that goal will be met, in view of the continuing violence in the Mideast.

Indeed, Israel has all but abandoned the "roadmap," in favor of Ariel Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan from Gaza in 2005. However, Yasser Arafat's health problems have threatened new conflicts, and recent news stories hint that Arafat may be near death.

Pakistan has also been suffering from continuing violence. Indeed, both the Mideast and Pakistan were subject to massive terrorist bombings on the same day, earlier this month.

There is a difference: The Mideast violence is between Arabs and Jews, while the Pakistan terrorist violence is mostly between Sunni Muslims and Shi'a Muslims. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that difference is no difference at all, since both are part of the trend lines of increasing violence, that will eventually lead to major new regional wars in the next few years. (29-Oct-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Oct-04 An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Oct-04
An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel