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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Sep-04

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Oil drops just barely below $50 - closing at $49.75 yesterday.

Oil drops just barely below $50 - closing at $49.75 yesterday.

But surprise! US oil inventories are low after all. For several months, oil industry analysts have been blaming the increasing price of oil on speculators who were building up large inventories.

Well, now the news reports are that inventories, in the US at least, are at historic lows.

One analyst is quoted as saying: "Prices will only drop to the levels of the 1990s if there's a total collapse of demand or if the market is flooded with supplies. I'm sure demand will go down with the high prices, but I don't see the market being flooded."

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is promising to increase its output of oil, to try to bring the price down.

This creates a very interesting situation, because some experts are claiming that oil production has reached a peak.

Global oil production, as predicted by the peak-oil movement. (Source: WSJ)

Just last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page story on the peak-oil movement, and Colin Campbell, one of its gurus. The adjoining graph shows that Campbell and others are predicting that oil production is leveling off, and can no longer rise to reach further increasing demands.

Saudi Arabia's promise to increase output puts the peak-oil movement into greater focus. Everyone's walking on eggshells right now, because no one wants to be blamed for trying to affect the US Presidential election. After November, we may begin to get some firm answers. (29-Sep-04) Permanent Link
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