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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Aug-04

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Russia's southern Caucasus region becoming increasingly dangerous

Russia's southern Caucasus region becoming increasingly dangerous

It's more dangerous than Iraq, and possibly even more dangerous than Palestine, at least in the short term. Georgia's South Ossetia province began a war in 1992 to separate from Georgia, and join up with Russia's North Ossetia province. A peace agreement reached at that time was broken several months ago, and hostilities have been increasing since then.

The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

The last two weeks have seen increases in the shooting, the violence, the retribution, and the rhetoric. A new war appears likely to break out soon.

This region has enormous strategic importance for many reasons, not the least of which is that oil pipelines run through it from Russia to the Black Sea.

Other trouble spots in this region include the following: Russia's ten year old war with Chechnya, which has spilled over into Ingushetia and Dagestan; Georgia's conflicts with two other separatist provinces, Abkhazia and Ajaria; and Armenia's claim to the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

The Caucasus region has been one of the three major historic sites for major "world wars" between Orthodox Christians and Muslims. (The other two are the Crimea and the Balkans.)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus region is deeper into a crisis period than even Palestine. The reason is that the last crisis war involving Palestine was in the aftermath of World War II, when the state of Israel was created, but the last crisis war of the Caucasus region was in the aftermath of World War I, some 20 years earlier. So a Caucasus war is more likely to "spiral out of control" than a Palestine war, although a war in either region would end up triggering a much larger "clash of civilizations." (12-Aug-04) Permanent Link
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