	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Postwar Rebound Fizzles

Generational Dynamics is proved right again, unfortunately and sadly. (29-Apr-03)

Summary The widely predicted postwar economic rebound has failed to materialize. Unfortunately, this provides further evidence that the long-standing Generational Dynamics prediction that we're entering a new 1930s style depression is coming true.

An article in the 4/29/2003 edition of the Wall Street Journal (p. D2) headlined "Postwar Rebound Seems to Fizzle" imparts the bad news: That the analysts who predicted that the economy would take off again once the uncertainty of the Iraqi war ended were completely wrong.

This is not a trivial matter. The economy has been deteriorating steadly for three years, and since fall, 2002, analysts have been blaming the deterioration on the uncertainty of the impending Iraqi war. For many months, these analysts have been predicting that the economy would take off again, once the Iraqi war was over.

By contrast, Generational Dynamics has been predicting for a long time that America is entering a new 1930s-style depression. We're currently in the third year of this depression, and it's expected to continue until around 2010, with the worst yet to come, including the possibility of reaching 25% unemployment levels. (For the details of this analysis, click here for the Finance section of this web site.)

So the analysts have been proven wrong again. Instead of improving, the economy is continuing to deteriorate, even though the war is now over.

Here's a list of the latest weekly economic indicators, listed in the WSJ article:

Jobless Claims -- Initial jobless claims rose to 455,000 in the week ending April 19, a troubling sign of a weak labor market.

Wal-Mart Sales -- Unusually cold spring weather has meant sales are tracking at the low end of expectations for April.

Mortgage Applications -- Application index for new purchases edged lower for two straight weeks after spurting early in the month.

Freight Car Loadings -- Mid-April freight car loadings down 0.2% from year earlier, after some early April improvement.

Leading Indicator -- Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index edged lower after late March increase.

The prediction of depression is based on analyses using several different methodologies, all of which point to the same unfortunate conclusion. (Click here for the Finance section.) As the months go by, the validity of this Generational Dynamics prediction is being shown, unfortunately, to be correct.